Bitcoin futures hit fresh intraday yearly lows yesterday as the cryptocurrency continues to languish, though bulls may have been relieved they didn’t see a significant breakout to the downside. The /BTC contract is down about -71% from its November highs for the year as it is now bumping against a short-term downtrend line that begins with the August highs.
Overall, there is little technical information that could give the bulls hope. Major moving averages such as the 21-day exponential moving average, the 63-EMA, and the 252-EMA are all sloping down, suggesting that the overall trend is down. The RSI (a momentum gauge) dipped into oversold territory on Wednesday but quickly squeezed out on yesterday’s +2.8% rally, while the Parabolic SAR made a bearish crossover in August. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (also called the ADX, which measures trend strength) is rising from a low, suggesting that the downtrend may be gaining some momentum.
One alarming thing is that there is little support here based on the price below. A weekly three-year chart of /BTC with volume profile shows few areas of consolidation and a large gap in trading activity from here to around 12,000, with the point of control (area of heaviest trading) near 10,470. This means that if things go bad, the price could fall quickly. If the price starts to reform, watch for resistance at the 21-EMA near 20,866.
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