what we have learned so far

China’s live fire drills around Taiwan — with ships circling the democratically-ruled island — have offered an unprecedented glimpse into how Beijing could mount a military campaign against its neighbor.

Beijing has also imposed economic sanctions and ramped up efforts to isolate Taiwan on the international stage, a move experts say will permanently change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.

AFP examines what we have learned from China’s biggest-ever military drill around Taiwan, conducted in retaliation for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-governing island this week.

The Chinese military has conducted exercises on Taiwan’s eastern flank for the first time, a strategically important area for resupplying the island’s forces — as well as potential American reinforcements.

This has sent an ominous signal that Beijing may now blockade the entire island, preventing any entry or exit of commercial or military ships and aircraft.

Analysts have long speculated that this will be one of China’s preferred strategies in the event of a war to conquer Taiwan.

“This crisis will signal that Beijing is able to repeat — and intensify — similar responses at will,” said Christopher Twomey, a security researcher at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California.

“But maintaining (a blockade) would be very costly, both to China’s reputation and in direct costs to its military.”

China’s current economic woes make it unlikely for now that it will risk a major disruption in the Strait of Taiwan – one of the world’s busiest waterways.

China has rapidly expanded and modernized its air, space and naval forces to project its power globally and close the gap with the US military.

Beijing’s military capabilities still lag behind Washington’s, but it aims to be able to overcome any setback to retake Taiwan by 2027, according to the Pentagon.

These military drills around Taiwan have put the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, which spearheaded the drills, to the test, said Collin Koh, a naval affairs expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

They have shown how far China’s military reform has come since the last cross-strait crisis in 1995-96, demonstrating its “ability to pull in or command a wider range of capabilities,” he said.

“At the very least, the tangible assets they’ve brought to the ground, as well as the ability to conduct an exercise of this scale, show they’re much more capable than they were in the 1990s.”

Taiwan’s 23 million residents have long lived with the possibility of invasion, but that threat has intensified under President Xi Jinping, China’s most confident ruler in a generation.

China is now boycotting fruit and fish from Taiwan, hurting the island economically in a move analysts say is aimed at undermining major bloc support for the pro-independence government.

Beijing has imposed sanctions on companies donating to the Taiwanese government’s development aid arm – putting an end to so-called “checkbook diplomacy” with allies.

But China will aim to keep its military and economic maneuvers below the threshold of war to avoid a direct confrontation with the US, analysts said.

“I think continued tensions are unlikely,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at US-based think tank German Marshall Fund, told AFP.

“But certainly a larger crisis would affect shipping, insurance rates, trade routes and (global) supply chains.”

Taiwan may have to get used to China holding similar military exercises in the future, Koh said.

“It will become the norm to conduct drills near the main island of Taiwan itself…this time it has set a new precedent for the PLA to conduct drills of this type.”

“We look at raising the bar to another level for future exercises of this scale and intensity.”

China has regularly sent warships or planes across the median line — an unofficial but once largely observed border that runs down the middle of the Taiwan Strait — during times of tension.

But Pelosi’s visit has given them “the excuse or justification to say that going forward they will only lawfully conduct drills east of the centerline without even giving it due consideration,” Koh said.

China has said it will end cooperation with the United States on key issues such as climate change and defense.

Washington has called the move “fundamentally irresponsible” as relations between the two superpowers have plummeted over Taiwan.

Beijing separately announced that it would personally sanction Pelosi – the third in line for the US presidency – in response to her “vicious” and “provocative” actions.

Tian Shichen, a Beijing-based security analyst, told Chinese state-run publication Global Times that the disruption in communications had increased the risk of conflict, but blamed the US entirely.

“Currently, almost all communication channels between the Chinese and US military are cut off, increasing the possibility of misunderstandings and unexpected incidents, all of which are the responsibility of the US,” he was quoted as saying.

“This is a moment in US-China relations where we are really at a very low point,” Glaser said in a discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.

“I hope both of our governments will find a way to talk about their … red lines, their concerns and prevent a continued downward spiral in the relationship.”