A new report from researchers at UC Davis and UC Merced paints a stark picture of what’s ahead if water management across the United States doesn’t evolve. While their findings were based in California, the implications apply nationwide: water supplies are shrinking, demand is rising, and without a shift toward smarter use and monitoring, the consequences for American agriculture could be severe.
The report estimates that California alone could face up to $14 billion annually in water-related losses, with nearly 3 million acres of farmland forced out of production and 67,000 rural jobs lost. But California is not an outlier. Across the western and central United States, prolonged drought, declining snowpack, groundwater depletion, and rising temperatures are placing increasing stress on agricultural water systems. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than one-third of the country regularly experiences moderate to exceptional drought conditions, threatening food production and economic stability in key farming regions.
“This data underscores the urgency for both smart legislation and scalable technology. We can’t solve a shrinking water supply with guesswork. Farmers need real-time insights, early leak detection and better tools to manage what water they do have. That’s where technology steps in,” asserts Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot.
The Scientific Scope of the Challenge
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that many parts of the U.S. are expected to experience a decline in annual freshwater availability due to a combination of reduced precipitation, higher evaporation rates, and increased demand. The Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies water to over 20 percent of the U.S. corn, wheat, and cattle output, is being depleted far faster than it can be replenished. Meanwhile, climate models predict a 20 to 30 percent reduction in snowpack-dependent water sources in the Rocky Mountains by mid-century, further exacerbating shortages.
These trends place pressure on high-water-use crops and livestock operations across the Midwest, Great Plains, and Southeast. As surface water becomes unreliable and groundwater access is increasingly restricted through regulation or depletion, growers face a narrowing path forward unless adaptation measures are prioritized.
Tech-Driven Resource Management
Scientific research has made clear that improved water efficiency must be central to any long-term agricultural strategy. Fortunately, advances in agtech are providing real-time solutions to monitor and manage water use more precisely.
Technologies such as soil moisture sensors, satellite-driven crop monitoring, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices like those developed by Ranchbot are helping farmers gain granular visibility into their water systems. These tools can detect leaks, measure usage patterns, and even automate irrigation schedules based on real-time weather data and soil conditions. By deploying these technologies, farms can reduce water use without sacrificing yield, making them more resilient to fluctuating supply.
These systems also allow for more accurate water budgeting, which is increasingly necessary in areas where policies such as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) or similar regulatory frameworks are taking hold. Farms equipped with precision irrigation and monitoring tools are better able to comply with restrictions while maintaining productive output.
A National Framework for Adaptation
Efforts like California’s Senate Bill 72, which would set a target of developing 9 million acre-feet of new water by 2040, are examples of the kind of structured planning needed across the country. While such policies are localized, the broader need is for a coordinated federal and regional approach that integrates science-based water planning with incentives for technology adoption.
Federal initiatives through agencies like the USDA and NRCS have begun funding more water conservation programs and agtech research, but the scale of investment must match the scale of the threat. Scientists and policymakers agree: reactive measures are not enough. Proactive, data-driven management of water resources is essential to maintain agricultural output and protect rural economies.
The Path Forward
Water scarcity is no longer a future threat, it is a current challenge reshaping how agriculture must operate. With up to a quarter of the nation’s freshwater supply at risk by 2050, the scientific consensus is clear: adaptation requires both innovation and integration. Technology cannot generate more water, but it can help us use what we have far more wisely.
The tools exist. The data is mounting. The question is whether the agricultural sector, and the legislation guiding it, can adapt fast enough to ensure the sustainability of America’s food system in a drier, more volatile future.
