Taiwan reservists are stoic but unprepared for the Chinese threat

Army reservist Henry Cheng sits thoughtfully in a pew in Taipei, indifferent to the Chinese warships and jets circling his island — but he also feels ill-prepared for war.

China’s massive military drills this month have pushed cross-strait tensions to the highest level in years and deepened fears that Beijing could violently seize control of the self-governing democracy it claims as its own.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the crisis has reignited debate within Taiwan and among key Western allies over the readiness of the island’s vastly outnumbered military.

But Cheng said he wasn’t worried.

“It was like, ‘Oh, they’re at it again,'” the 25-year-old insurance salesman told AFP. “Ever since I was little they talked about a war, but there hasn’t been one yet.”

Cheng completed his mandatory four-month military service last year, adding himself to some 2.5 million reservists who could be called up to fight in the event of an invasion.

But conflict feels like a distant reality for Cheng compared to his usual routine of meeting clients and rehearsing Christian worship songs as a drummer for his church band.

“I’m definitely not ready (for war) because four months for me is more like going there to play,” he said, referring to his training.

“I would probably die very quickly.

Conscription used to be deeply unpopular in Taiwan, which was once a brutal military dictatorship but has now transformed itself into a progressive democracy.

Taiwan’s previous government reduced conscription from one year to four months with the goal of creating a mostly volunteer force.

But Beijing’s saber-rattling has intensified under President Xi Jinping, China’s most authoritarian leader in a generation.

And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the deadly risks of verbal threats from a huge authoritarian neighbor becoming real.

As a result, President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration is considering reinvigorating military service.

It’s not yet clear when a decision might be made, but polls show that more than three-quarters of the Taiwanese public now believe the tenure is too short.

According to Pentagon estimates, Taiwan’s 88,000 ground troops remain massively outnumbered by China’s 1 million ground troops.

But the mountainous island would still present a formidable challenge.

Taipei has stepped up reservist training and increased purchases of jets and anti-ship missiles. However, experts say this is not enough.

“I really think four months is too short,” said Joseph Hwang, an associate professor at Taiwan’s National Defense University.

“Taiwan has no condition for voluntary military service.”

Peter Yang, an engineer who plays war games in his spare time, recalls spending much of his mandatory military service mostly “on paperwork.”

“Not much time was devoted to training, just basic physical training and target practice,” the 24-year-old told AFP

“Our job is really just dying on the battlefield … so knowing how to fire a gun is enough for us,” he said, adding that reservists were only given 12 bullets for each target practice.

Last month, former US Army chief Mark Esper called on Taiwan to triple its compulsory service to one year and expand its enrollment to include women.

American and Taiwanese strategists have urged Taipei to adopt a “porcupine” strategy of asymmetric warfare like Ukraine’s to defend against a Chinese invasion.

But Taiwan’s people are not ready for the stubborn resistance seen on the streets of Ukrainian cities, said retired Air Force Colonel Richard Chou, who served 21 years.

“Taiwan’s military preparation is not enough in my view,” the 52-year-old said, adding that he would willingly serve if recalled.

“It’s not just about one person holding a gun. They have to learn through training to deal with situations together as a group – only then do they have a chance to resist in the future.”

To demonstrate just how unperturbed the Taiwanese are by the threat, 75-year-old veteran Jasper Lee points around a park in central Taipei.

“They just had the military exercise around the island of Taiwan and people are like this — they’re dancing, drinking, exercising,” he said.

But under the stoicism many fear of China slumbers.

John Chen, a 26-year-old reservist, said the exercises increased his fear and compared Beijing to a stalker.

“This person really likes you, but he keeps saying that you belong to him … he knows where you go to work every day and follows you home from work. This is the situation Taiwan is in,” he said.

“I worry if my country will survive.”