What’s next after six months of war with Ukraine?

Six months after Russian forces launched what they had hoped was a blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has escalated into a grueling campaign of daily airstrikes and fighting, with no clear end in sight.

Much of the country’s east and south is under Russian control, depriving Ukraine of Black Sea ports vital to the grain exports that are the lifeblood of its economy.

Russia is also suffering under Western sanctions, although few expect President Vladimir Putin to end the slow but steady push deeper into Ukraine any time soon – let alone give up the territories already occupied.

Both sides have suffered heavy losses in life and material, but neither seems willing to consider a ceasefire.

Ukrainians believe they are engaged in an existential struggle to defend a nation that Putin dismisses as a historical error.

“No one can win under such circumstances,” said Konstantin Kalachev, a Moscow-based political scientist. “This ‘military special operation’ could last for years.”

“Russia hopes to win by wearing them down… Time is not on Ukraine’s side and its economy could collapse,” he told AFP.

Marie Dumoulin, a director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said vigorous support from Western allies would also make it harder for either side to back down now.

“Each side believes they can still gain a military advantage, so this is unlikely to end any time soon,” she said.

Putin has also portrayed the conflict as part of Russia’s resistance to an expansionist NATO, making any suggestion of “defeat” unacceptable.

He could punish Ukraine’s desire for closer EU integration by pushing towards the key port of Odessa, effectively shutting the country ashore and curbing its exports.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may seek other tactical successes, such as sinking the Moskva missile cruiser in April, or possibly even attempt a counteroffensive to retake some territory.

“That would allow him to re-motivate Ukrainian troops and society and justify his demands for more help from European partners,” Dumoulin said.

Military hardware and intelligence data from Europe and the US have enabled Ukrainian forces to slow, but not stop, Russian forces in Donbass and along the Black Sea coast.

But it also allows Russia to consolidate its positions, having already built up its military presence in the Crimean peninsula over the past eight years since its annexation by Moscow.

And so far, Zelensky’s pleas for more advanced and powerful weapons have been unsuccessful.

“The Ukrainian people are so far united and supportive of the government, but this stability also depends heavily on the idea that the West is helping Ukraine in this war,” said Dimitri Minic, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations in Paris.

The arrival of cold weather will also test Ukrainians’ resolve when faced with fuel shortages, power or heating outages and other hardships, especially as more people are displaced from their homes by the fighting.

Dumoulin noted that 40 percent of Ukraine’s schools will remain closed when classes resume in September, which could take a heavy psychological toll.

“A lot will depend on their ability to survive the winter, especially for those behind the front lines… It’s going to be difficult,” she said.

Despite Moscow’s misjudgment of Ukraine’s resilience, Russia appears willing to bear the cost of a long war of attrition.

Ukraine’s allies tried to choke off Russia’s economy by restricting the oil and gas sales on which it depends, while imposing sanctions restricting imports and forcing many Western companies to leave the country.

But “export earnings, mostly from oil, gas, coal and other commodities, have not only held, they have exceeded expectations,” said Chris Weafer, a veteran Russia analyst at consulting firm Macro-Advisory.

Ordinary Russians have already endured sanctions since Crimea was seized, and the government soon found new sources for industrial components and other materials from Turkey or Asia.

“Business, industry and people have had eight years to adjust to the sanctions, so today countries and people are better prepared and more self-sufficient, albeit at a basic level,” Weafer said.

However, the full impact of the sanctions could be harsh in the coming years, as Russia diverts funds from investments in the war effort and foreign firms remain cautious.

“We will feel the full impact in about five years,” Kalachev said.

As the conflict bogs down over the winter and into 2023, much will depend on sustained Western support, especially if voters think the costs – not least soaring fuel and food prices – are becoming too high.

“Probably there will come a point when Putin will count on Western nonchalance and offer some opportunities…to urge Western leaders to pressure Ukraine to end the conflict on Russia’s terms,” ​​Dumoulin said.

Barring a catastrophic military miscalculation, Ukraine’s army is unlikely to collapse completely, and few expect Zelenskyy to accept negotiations that do not give Ukraine back all lost territories, including Crimea.

And if its allies continue to provide aid and arms, Russia’s military advantage could steadily dwindle.

It could also jeopardize Putin’s public support at home and potentially catalyze opposition forces ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.

“What could exacerbate tensions between the Kremlin and the remnants of civil society … is a declaration of war, martial law, or general mobilization,” Minic said.

“In big cities like Moscow or St. Petersburg, where the obsessive anti-Western narrative is less relevant, that would be difficult to deal with.”