Global decarbonization scenarios being envisaged by oil and gas majors are inconsistent with the temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement aimed at averting devastating warming, according to a study published on Tuesday.
In the landmark 2015 agreement, nations pledged to limit the planet’s warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels and work towards a safer warming ceiling of 1.5°C.
An international team of experts analyzed six emission scenarios from three European energy giants – Equinor, BP and Shell – as well as scenarios prepared by the International Energy Agency, in the journal Nature Communications.
They then compared the analyzed pathways to scenarios outlined in a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 1.5°C warming.
The team used these to assess the peak and ending temperatures in each scenario and found that in some scenarios average global temperatures could fall after the peak by 2100.
They also assessed the underlying energy system changes that could drive emissions and cause a given scenario to meet – or miss – the Paris temperature targets.
“Most of the scenarios we assessed would be deemed inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they do not limit warming to ‘well below 2°C’, let alone 1.5°C, and the 1.5°C warming limit would be significantly exceeded,” said Robert Brecha from the think tank Climate Analytics and co-lead author of the study.
“Transforming the energy system is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement warming limit, and decision-makers need sound and transparent scientific assessments. This paper contributes to that transparency.”
– “Catastrophic Effects” –
Analysis found that Shell’s sky scenario would result in warming of 1.81C by 2069 — a far cry from 1.5C.
A Shell spokeswoman told AFP that the Sky path is just one of several the company is considering.
The team responsible for modeling scenarios “makes judgments based on reasonable assumptions and quantifications that are not intended as predictions of likely future events or outcomes, let alone our energy transition plan,” she added.
Equinor’s rebalance scenario would see peak warming of 1.73C above pre-industrial levels by 2060, according to the study.
BP’s rapid scenario would see peak warming of 1.73°C by 2058, while the net-zero scenario would see a mean peak of 1.65°C, the analysis said.
Equinor declined to comment, while BP did not respond to a request for comment.
Only the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 path is fully aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target, the authors concluded.
“Fossil fuel companies claim that we can continue to burn oil and gas while staying within the 1.5°C warming limit, and they cite their own scenarios as justification,” said Bill Hare, CEO and senior scientist at Climate Analytics .
“But our research shows that their paths would go beyond the Paris Agreement. Even temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees warming would have catastrophic effects and seriously weaken our ability to adapt to climate change.”
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