Inflation, supply chain issues and ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China are among the factors helping to delay a full recovery in business travel to pre-pandemic levels, according to an industry forecast released on Monday.
The Global Business Travel Association now forecasts business travel to return to its 2019 level of $1.43 trillion in mid-2026, 18 months later than the group’s last forecast in November.
“The recovery has faced some headwinds,” GBTA said in a statement, outlining a gradual improvement from a bottom of $661 billion in 2020 to reaching $1.47 trillion in 2026.
“The factors affecting many industries around the world are also expected to impact the global recovery in business travel through 2025,” said Suzanne Neufang, executive director of the association.
The group said recovery was “short-circuited” by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 in late 2021 and early 2022, but travel increased sharply thereafter once Covid cases fell.
Top obstacles to a full recovery include high energy prices, labor shortages, Covid lockdowns, regional impacts from the war in Ukraine and sustainability concerns.
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