#Taliban #stronger #year #power
A year after returning to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban are a stronger military force than ever, but their rule is under threat.
To tighten their grip, the Taliban have sent thousands of fighters into the Panshjir Valley, home to the only conventional military threat the Islamists have faced since taking over.
For decades, the scenic valley in northeastern Afghanistan was a bastion of resistance to outside forces and the birthplace of the National Resistance Front (NRF).
On the other end of the spectrum, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) group has planted bombs and carried out several suicide bombings over the past 12 months.
But the jihadists have focused on soft targets – mainly Shia mosques and Sikh temples – rather than attacking the Taliban head-on.
After the chaotic withdrawal of US-led troops on August 31 last year, Western threats to Taliban rule were also crushed.
Still, the recent assassination of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri by a US drone strike on his Kabul hideout shows how vulnerable Taliban leaders can be in the face of a high-tech enemy.
While the Panjshir Valley worries the Taliban most, analyst Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based think tank Wilson Center believes serious resistance is still a long way off.
“If we see the IS-K picking up their attacks and throwing more punches… I think the NRF could really benefit from that,” he told AFP.
“If Afghans see their families being blown up by IS-K… I think it could significantly damage the Taliban’s legitimacy and that could benefit the NRF and give them a window.”
– ‘Fear in Our Hearts’ –
Panjshir was the latest province to fall to the Taliban in their lightning-fast takeover of the country last year — who held out until September 6, three weeks after they took Kabul.
An uneasy calm then settled over the valley – some 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of Kabul – until May, when the NRF emerged from the mountains to strike again.
In response, the Taliban sent more than 6,000 fighters in long columns of armored vehicles, sowing fear in the hearts of the residents.
“Ever since the Taliban arrived in the valley, people have been in a panic, they can’t speak freely,” Amir told AFP in the provincial capital in a hushed voice as a patrol passed by.
“The Taliban think if young people sit together, then they plan something against them,” he added, asking not to be called by his real name.
In the 1980s, fighters led by Ahmad Shah Massoud – nicknamed the “Lion of Panjshir” – fought Soviet forces from the rugged peaks of Panshjir.
When the Red Army withdrew, Afghanistan descended into civil war and the Taliban took control of the country.
Panjshir persevered, even though Massoud was assassinated two days before the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
The NRF is led by his son Ahmad Masood who, like many NRF leaders, is now in unknown exile.
Taliban forces now firmly control the main road that runs through the valley, with checkpoints everywhere.
Thousands of people have fled the valley, which was once home to around 170,000 people, and there is an atmosphere of fear, with residents only speaking if their real names are not revealed.
“We used to like coming here,” says a visitor named Nabila, who was in the valley with her four sisters to attend their mother’s funeral.
“Now we have fear in our hearts. We’re afraid that if our husbands come, they’ll be dragged out of the car,” she said, asking that her full name be withheld for fear of retribution.
– will vs. capacity –
Rights groups have accused the Taliban of widespread abuses in Panjshir – allegations they deny – including extrajudicial executions.
“Arbitrarily detained are also subjected to physical torture and beatings, in some cases resulting in death,” Amnesty International said in June.
“The Taliban arrested relatives of resistance fighters and threatened to kill them,” said Jamshed, a resident of a town in Panjshir.
“These threats forced many fighters to come down from the mountains and surrender.”
Still, the Taliban authorities are sending mixed messages about the threat posed by the NRF – on the one hand denying their existence but sending troops to fight them.
“We didn’t see a front, the front doesn’t exist,” Abdul Hameed Khurasani, head of a Taliban special forces stationed in the valley, told AFP.
“There are (only) few people in the mountains. We hunt them.”
Ali Nazary, head of the NRF’s foreign relations department, questions the Taliban’s claims.
“If we were a few fighters and we were pushed into the mountains, why are they sending thousands of their fighters?” he asked.
Nazary said the NRF now has a force of 3,000 and bases across the province – a claim impossible to independently verify.
Kugelman believes the NRF has the will to fight but not the capacity.
“For the NRF to be a truly effective group, it will need … more external support, military and financial,” he said.
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