The world’s largest ice sheet could raise sea levels by “several meters” over centuries if global temperatures rise by more than 2C, according to a British study published on Wednesday.
Durham University researchers concluded that the melting East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could cause sea levels to rise by nearly half a meter by 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Their analysis was published in the journal Nature.
If emissions remain high beyond that, the EAIS could contribute about one to three meters to global sea level by 2300 and two to five meters to global sea level by 2500, they said.
However, if emissions were drastically reduced, EAIS estimates could contribute about two centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.
This would be far less than the ice loss expected from Greenland and West Antarctica.
“A key conclusion from our analysis is that the fate of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely in our hands,” said lead author Chris Stokes of Durham University’s Department of Geography.
“This sheet of ice is by far the largest on the planet, containing the equivalent of 52 meters sea level, and it’s really important that we don’t wake this sleeping giant.
“Limiting global temperature rise below the 2°C limit of the Paris Climate Agreement should mean that we avoid the worst-case scenarios, or perhaps even halt the melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, thereby limiting its impact on global ocean levels as levels rise “, he added.
– computer simulations –
The study noted that the worst-case scenarios projected were “very unlikely”.
World leaders agreed at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris to limit global warming to well below 2°C and to make efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
The research team, which included scientists from the UK, Australia, France and the US, analyzed how the ice sheet was responding to past warm periods in its predictions.
They ran computer simulations to model the effects of different greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures on the ice sheet in 2100, 2300, and 2500.
They found evidence that three million years ago, when temperatures were 2-4°C warmer than today, part of the EAIS “collapsed and contributed several meters to sea-level rise”.
“Even 400,000 years ago – not so long ago on geological timescales – there is evidence that part of the EAIS retreated 700 km inland in response to just 1-2°C of global warming,” they added.
Nerilie Abram, a study co-author from the Australian National University in Canberra, warned that the sheet “is not as strong and protected as we once thought”.
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