Russia’s announcement this week that it will leave the International Space Station “after 2024” raises critical questions about the outpost’s future viability.
Here’s what you should know about Moscow’s decision and the potential impact on one of the last remaining examples of US-Russia cooperation.
– Why does Russia want to leave? –
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pitted it against the West, snuffing out its ties with the United States and leading to sweeping sanctions including on its space industry.
Back in March, Dmitry Rogozin, then head of Russia’s Roscosmos space agency, warned that without his nation’s cooperation, the ISS could crash to Earth in US or European territory.
But Rogozin’s penchant for bombast, combined with the lack of a firm plan, left things uncertain — and just two weeks ago Russia and the United States vowed to continue flying each other’s cosmonauts and astronauts to the station.
Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, said the new announcement by Rogozin’s successor, Yuri Borisov, was “slightly helpful.”
“The fact that they said, ‘We’re going to commit by 2024,’ is good,” Pace, a former senior government official, told AFP.
That means Moscow has no plans to withdraw any earlier, although it’s not yet clear what exactly “after 2024” means.
The year 2024 was what the partners had previously agreed on, although NASA’s goal is to keep the ISS in orbit until at least 2030 and then move on to smaller commercial stations.
The next step in this process is to notify a body called the Multilateral Oversight Board, which includes all ISS partners – the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada. At this point, the details of the transition are determined.
If Russia pulls through, it could end up abandoning its once-proud space program for a while. The country doesn’t have a commercial space economy, and Russian analysts don’t expect the country to build a new station anytime soon.
– Can the station fly without Russia? –
Probably – but it would be a challenge.
The ISS was launched in 1998 at a time of hope for cooperation between the US and Russia following their Cold War space race competition.
Since the Space Shuttle was retired, the ISS has relied on Russian propulsion systems to maintain its orbit at an altitude of around 400 kilometers above sea level. The US segment is responsible for electricity and life support systems.
The United States recently made progress toward achieving an independent propulsion system through Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft, which successfully completed a re-boost test in late June.
But altitude is only part of the equation: the other is “posture” or orientation.
Cygnus “can push, but it can’t point the station in the right direction while it’s pushing,” explained astronomer and space observer Jonathan McDowell.
The ISS itself can make small adjustments, but if the Russians pull out, the United States would need a more permanent solution — perhaps with the SpaceX Dragon, Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus, or Orion, Pace said.
Russia has two propulsion systems: advance spacecraft docked at the station and the Zvezda service module. All control systems are handled from Moscow.
It would help if Russia left their segment in place, rather than taking it with them when they leave — one of the station’s two bathrooms is on the Russian side — Pace observed, but that’s another unknown.
“If it’s still there and we wanted to use it, would there be some sort of lease agreement? I dont know.”
– What do experts predict? –
NASA itself has taken an optimistic position.
“We run and shoot, we will go full power until 2030,” NASA ISS program manager Joel Montalbano said on Tuesday morning of the Russian announcement.
“Everyone thinks there’s another plan, they’re wrong.”
But while Russia’s withdrawal could present a new opportunity for the private sector, McDowell isn’t so sure.
For him, it’s an open question “how hard they really want to work to get a few extra years out of the ISS.”
“It may not be the right move for the US to go to extreme lengths to save (the) station,” he said, especially as NASA has larger goals of building a lunar space station called Gateway, establishing a lunar presence and heading to Mars to fly.
“Maybe they should take the Russian withdrawal as an excuse and say, ‘Okay, bye.’ And now we’re investing our money in Gateway.”
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