In the scorching heat, Felipe Elvira inspects the branches of his olive trees planted as far as the eye can see on a dusty hilltop in southern Spain.
“There are no olives on it. Everything is dry,” says the 68-year-old.
He and his son own a 100-hectare olive farm in the southern province of Jaen in sun-drenched Andalusia, a region that produces most of the country’s olive oil.
But a severe drought sweeping across much of Spain threatens to shrink their harvest this year.
“We’re used to water shortages, but not to this point,” Elvira said.
The region used to get 800 liters (210 gallons) of rainfall per square meter, but this year there will be about half that amount, he said.
“Every year it gets worse,” said Elvira.
Global warming is hitting Spain harder than most European nations.
The country has suffered three intense heatwaves since May, already grappling with an unusually dry winter, damaging crops.
“Olive trees are very resilient to water scarcity,” said Juan Carlos Hervas, an expert at farmers’ union COAG.
But when droughts become extreme, “trees activate mechanisms to protect themselves. They don’t die, but they don’t produce anymore,” he added.
– ‘Absolutely dramatic’ –
Hervas predicts that the olive harvest from unirrigated land will be less than 20 percent of the average over the past five years.
The harvest on irrigated land will only be 50 to 60 percent of that average, he said.
But the water reserves are dwindling.
The Guadalquivir river, which supplies Andalusia with much of its water, is in an “absolutely dramatic situation” due to the lack of rain, said Rosario Jimenez, professor of hydrology at the University of Jaen.
According to the Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition, the reservoirs fed by the river have only 30 percent of their capacity.
“Some are even at 10 percent capacity — that’s practically dried up,” says Jimenez.
Farmers have also noticed changes in recent years.
“Not only does it rain less, it rains torrentially when it does fall. The water flows without penetrating the earth,” Hervas said.
Parts of Portugal and Spain are the driest in a thousand years due to a high-pressure atmospheric system driven by climate change, according to a study published this month in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The phenomenon is expected to increase, threatening crops such as olives and grapes.
At stake is an important export: Spain supplies almost half of the world’s olive oil. Its exports of this “green gold” are worth around 3.6 billion euros (3.7 billion US dollars) per year.
– Olive Addiction –
Olive oil has been an essential part of the Mediterranean diet for thousands of years and olive trees cover many of southern Spain’s hills often unsuitable for other crops.
“Many villages here depend entirely on olive trees. Without olives, there is no income,” said Hervas.
According to farmers’ union COAG, seven out of ten hectares of olive land in Spain are not irrigated.
With the rise in temperature, 80 percent of Andalusia’s non-irrigated olive tree plantations may no longer be suitable for growing olives, or at least some varieties of the crop, he added.
Quality could also decrease because farmers have to harvest the fruit early before it is fully ripe, the union said in a recent report.
Some farmers might be tempted to start irrigating their plots, but doing so would further deplete extensive reservoirs.
Agriculture already uses up to four-fifths of Spain’s water resources, Jimenez said.
“Not all areas can be irrigated,” she said.
Back at his farm, Elvira is all too aware of the problem.
“We cannot exhaust the resources, everyone needs water. To be honest, I don’t know how we’re going to do it,” he said.
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