Russia on Tuesday said it would exit the International Space Station “after 2024” amid tensions with the West, which analysts said could result in a halt to manned flights.
Confirmation of the long-discussed move comes as ties between the Kremlin and the West are unraveling over Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and several rounds of devastating sanctions against Russia, including its space sector.
Space experts said the departure from the International Space Station would seriously affect the country’s space sector and deal a serious blow to the program of manned flights, a major source of Russian pride.
“Of course we will fulfill all our commitments to our partners, but the decision to leave this station after 2024 has been made,” Yuri Borisov, the new head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, told President Vladimir Putin, according to a Kremlin report.
“I think that at that point we will start building a Russian orbital station,” Borisov added, calling it the top “priority” of the domestic space program.
The ISS is scheduled to be retired after 2024, although the US space agency NASA says it can remain operational until 2030.
The ISS was launched in 1998 at a time of hope for cooperation between the US and Russia following their Cold War space race competition.
Washington has yet to receive official word from Russia, Robyn Gatens, director of the ISS for NASA, said during a conference at the outpost.
When asked if she wanted US-Russia space ties to end, she replied, “No, absolutely not.”
So far, space exploration has been one of the few areas where cooperation between Russia and the United States and its allies has not been shattered by tensions in Ukraine and elsewhere.
– ‘Like an old woman’s apartment’-
Russia is heavily dependent on imports for everything from manufacturing equipment to consumer goods, and the impact of Western sanctions is expected to devastate the country’s economy in the long term.
Space expert Vadim Lukashevich said space science cannot thrive in a heavily sanctioned country.
“If the ISS ceases to exist in 2024, we will have nowhere to fly,” Lukashevich told AFP. “At stake is the preservation of manned flight in Russia, the birthplace of cosmonautics.”
Noting Russia’s growing scientific and technological isolation amid the offensive in Ukraine, Lukashevich said authorities could not plan more than several months in advance, adding that even if Russia built a space station would be a throwback to the 1980s .
“It’s going to be archaic, like an old woman’s apartment, with a push-button phone and a record player,” he said.
Space analyst Vitaly Yegorov suggested a similar remark, saying it would be near impossible to build a new orbital station from scratch in a few years.
“Neither in 2024, nor in 2025, nor in 2026 will there be a Russian orbital station,” Yegorov told AFP.
He added that creating a full-fledged space station would require at least a decade of “the most generous funding.”
Yegorov said Russia’s departure from the ISS means Moscow may have to put its manned flight program on hold “for several years” or even “indefinitely.”
The move could also result in Russia giving up its main Baikonur cosmodrome, which it leases from Kazakhstan, Yegorov said.
– ‘Hard to restore’ –
The Soviet space program boasts several important achievements, including sending the first human into space in 1961 and launching the first satellite four years earlier. These achievements remain an important source of national pride in Russia.
But experts say Roscosmos is now a shadow of its former self and has suffered a series of setbacks in recent years, including corruption scandals and the loss of a number of satellites and other spacecraft.
Borisov, appointed in mid-July, replaced Dmitry Rogozin, a hot-headed politician known for his bombastic rhetoric.
Rogozin previously warned that without cooperation with Moscow, the ISS could de-orbit and fall on US or European territory.
In a possible sign of disagreement with Borisov, Vladimir Solovyov, chief designer at spacecraft manufacturer Energia, said Russia should not rush to leave the ISS.
“If we stop manned flights for several years, it will be very difficult to restore what has been achieved,” he was quoted as saying by Russky Cosmos magazine.
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