Sri Lanka’s parliament on Wednesday will elect a new president to replace Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled to Singapore last week and resigned after months of protests over the country’s financial crisis.
AFP examines how financially strapped Sri Lanka fell into its worst economic crisis on record and what comes next in its complicated, corrupt and sometimes violent political system.
– Why did Rajapaksa escape? –
Sri Lanka’s financial troubles were sparked by the coronavirus pandemic but exacerbated by mismanagement under the Rajapaksa government.
The country has been unable to finance even its most important imports since late last year and has since defaulted on its debt.
For months, discontent has been mounting over severe food and fuel shortages, record inflation and protracted power outages.
Even Rajapaksa’s closest allies began to desert him, and when protesters overran his official residence in Colombo this month, he was forced to flee to a naval base and then to Singapore, fearing for his life.
– Wasn’t Rajapaksa a popular leader? –
Rajapaksa has been dubbed the “Terminator” for his ruthless crackdown on Tamil rebels during his older brother Mahinda’s presidency as head of the defense ministry between 2005 and 2015.
He was loved by the country’s Sinhala Buddhist majority but loathed by Tamils and Muslims, who viewed him as a war criminal, racist and oppressor of minorities.
As inflation topped 50 percent and acute food shortages forced four out of five people to cut back on their groceries, the ethnically divided nation joined in its opposition to Rajapaksa.
– What happened after he escaped? –
Rajapaksa officially resigned on July 14, just two years and eight months after his five-year tenure, and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was automatically appointed acting leader under the country’s constitution.
Wickremesinghe is serving as a stopgap measure until Wednesday, when the 225-seat parliament elects one of its members to lead the country for the remainder of Rajapaksa’s term.
– How does the election work? –
The 225 MPs will rank the three candidates in a secret ballot according to their preference.
Candidates need more than half of the votes to be elected. If no one crosses the first preference threshold, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and their votes are distributed according to the second preference.
Secret voting gives MPs a freer hand than open voting, and previous elections have alleged that bribes were offered and accepted in exchange for votes.
During a constitutional crisis in October 2018, some lawmakers said they were offered $3.5 million in cash and apartments abroad for their support.
– Who’s leading the race? –
Incumbent President Wickremesinghe, 73, a pro-Western six-time prime minister, appears to be the front runner.
He has secured the support of the Rajapaksa SLPP leadership, which remains the largest single bloc in parliament, and his hard-line stance on protesters has been well received by MPs who have been victims of mob violence.
The SLPP has more than 100 seats and Wickremesinghe would almost certainly be elected if party discipline held.
– Who are the other candidates? –
The SLPP is divided, leaving party dissident and former media minister Dullas Alahapperuma, 63, a serious challenger.
Main opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, 55, has joined forces with Alahapperuma on a pact that would appoint him prime minister if their ticket succeeds.
It’s an unlikely pairing. Alahapperuma was a journalist and rights activist in the late 1980s when Premadasa’s late father, Ranasinghe, ruled the country with an iron fist.
A distant third candidate is leftist leader Anura Dissanayake, whose coalition only has three seats in parliament.
– What does this mean for the IMF talks? –
Despite their differences, Sri Lanka’s political parties are united in their support for ongoing talks with the International Monetary Fund, with Wickremesinghe saying a bailout is urgently needed.
Sri Lanka declared itself insolvent in mid-April when the government defaulted on its $51 billion external debt.
But the political crisis has stalled negotiations and the IMF said last week it hoped the unrest would be settled soon so it could resume.
No political party in the current parliament has a clear majority.
Even if the country could afford new elections, Tamil lawmaker Dharmalingam Sithadthan warned that a strong mandate is not always a guarantee of stability or success.
“We had Gotabaya with a record 6.9 million votes and what did he do?” Sithadthan told AFP. “He was a total failure.”
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