The Nord Stream pipeline, which supplies Germany with most of its Russian gas, will be shut down for routine maintenance from Monday – amid mounting fears it could remain shut down forever.
Germany is already feeling the effects of the energy shortages caused by the war in Ukraine, as many homes and businesses turn down the thermostat or dim the lights.
Economics Minister Robert Habeck has even made headlines for touting the benefits of shorter, colder showers.
There is now a great deal of nervousness as the planned 10-day pause in deliveries via the vital Nord Stream pipeline threatens to make the situation even worse.
“No scenario can be ruled out,” warned Habeck.
Faced with the risk that supplies may never return to previous levels, many businesses and local authorities have developed contingency plans.
“It is possible that we will work from home again as we did during the pandemic – but this time to save energy in the national interest,” Carsten Knobel, head of consumer chemicals group Henkel, told local media.
The VCI, an industry association of the German chemical industry, which is heavily dependent on gas, has announced that it will be prepared for “the worst-case scenario”.
Chemicals giant BASF, meanwhile, has raised the possibility of sending its employees on furlough, a scheme already in use during the coronavirus pandemic starting in 2020.
The perfume manufacturer Symrise uses an oil-powered oven in its Holzminden plant.
– ‘One or two months’ –
Russia has already cut deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline by 60 percent in recent weeks, citing technical problems – which Berlin dismisses as a cover for a “political” decision.
As a result, Germany’s gas storage facilities are being filled at a slower rate than usual, putting the country at risk of “gas shortages,” Habeck said.
“If we no longer purchase gas from Russia … the quantities currently stored will only last for one to two months,” said Klaus Müller, President of the Federal Network Agency.
Consumers “will be shocked if they receive a letter from their energy supplier with a bill that is about three times as high,” said Müller.
On Thursday, the Bundestag passed a plan to shut off hot water in its offices and to keep air temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter.
Several municipalities have also launched energy-saving plans.
The Bavarian city of Augsburg has turned off its fountains, dimmed the facades of public buildings at night and is debating switching off some underused traffic lights.
– cool nights –
A housing cooperative in the eastern city of Dresden made national headlines when it announced it would limit hot water to certain times of the day.
And Vonovia, Germany’s largest real estate group, announced on Thursday that it would limit the temperature in its 350,000 apartments to 17 degrees Celsius at night.
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany has managed to reduce the proportion of its natural gas supplies from Russia from 55 percent to around 35 percent.
The country relies on gas for more than 50 percent of its heating needs.
To further reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Germany has set aside billions of euros (dollars) to buy liquefied natural gas from other producers such as Qatar or the United States.
But in the event of a complete halt to deliveries from Russia, the country “will have to make very difficult social decisions,” said Habeck.
The end of Russian gas supplies would most likely plunge the country into a painful recession, with the economy shrinking by 6.5 percent between 2022 and 2023, according to a recent forecast by the country’s top economic think tanks.
The surge in energy prices in June already created the country’s first monthly trade deficit in three decades, perhaps the first tremor of a major upheaval to come.
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