With inflation ramping up in Turkey, the sheep that Gul Er buys each year for Istanbul’s Muslim Festival of Sacrifice seems agonizingly out of reach.
Prices have doubled or even tripled since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched an unorthodox economic experiment last year that has hurt Turks’ living standards.
The young mother is hoping to bargain down the price of one of the skinny-looking animals at a cattle fair held under white tents in a conservative corner of the city ahead of the holiday of Kurban Bayrami (Eid al-Adha in Arabic).
“It’s a sacred duty,” she said of buying a sheep to be sacrificed along with oxen and goats in the name of Allah, with the meat traditionally shared with the poor, friends and neighbors.
“But this year the prices are prohibitive,” He said, as the stench of thousands of animals mingled with the sounds of haggling in the heavy summer air ahead of Saturday’s first full day of celebrations.
Annual inflation in Turkey has officially reached 78.6 percent, although economists and many ordinary Turks doubt government data.
Even if the official numbers are to be believed, that’s higher than any other emerging economy and nearly ten times the record levels rocking the European Union, where the cost of living is fueling political crises.
An independent survey prepared by the ENAG group – and which most Turks believe – puts the annual inflation rate at 175 percent.
These numbers not only cloud Erdogan’s chances in next year’s election, but also mean trouble for the dealers at the animal fair in Istanbul.
– snowball problems –
Semsi Bayraktar, head of the Turkish Chamber of Agriculture trade union, expects sales to fall by a quarter this year.
Galip Toklu, a grower who came to the 40,000-square-meter fair from the Black Sea city of Samsun, detailed how inflation snowballs lead to seemingly endless problems.
The cost of animal feed has quadrupled, while the amount he pays to transport his livestock to Istanbul has tripled since the last Kurban Bayrami, forcing Toklu to double the price of his meat.
“Last year I sold 500 kilos of beef for 20,000 lira. This year, I’m setting my prices at 45,000 lira,” he said.
Yet few can afford Toklu’s beef today, while a cheaper sale could put him out of business.
“Customers are inevitably upset,” he said, scowling from under a wide-brimmed hat.
– ‘Erdonomy’ –
While this year’s animal fair looks huge, its 160 tents are a fraction of the 500 that have been erected in previous years.
As the fair draws to a close, grower Sinas Ates looks desperate after not making a single sale in two days. Livestock breeding in Turkey is “finished,” he grumbled.
Just like sacrificing sheep, Erdogan’s economic experiment – dubbed “Erdonomics” by skeptical global markets – is linked to his faith.
Erdogan cites Islamic prohibitions on usury to justify his refusal to raise interest rates to fight inflation.
High interest rates cause prices to rise, according to Erdogan’s logic, which contradicts current economic orthodoxy.
So Erdogan pushed the central bank to lower interest rates even further. Analysts at Capital Economics in London see the possibility of the lira plummeting as a “big risk”.
– ‘Allah’s Commands’ –
At the market, Salih Yeter has responded to the crisis by searching for the perfect sheep with seven friends, all contributing to the purchase.
“People usually can’t afford to eat meat,” said the 57-year-old. In difficult times it is particularly important to give away meat to the poor.
According to official figures, food prices rose 93 percent last year, with meat prices pushing even higher.
This is especially painful for Er, whose daughter has a metabolic disease that restricts her to a meat diet.
“I can’t even respect my daughter’s diet,” the mother whispered.
But respecting the holy holiday’s traditions is obligatory, said Selahattin Kose, a “Hajji” (one who has made a pilgrimage to Mecca) from the eastern city of Erzurum.
“Prices have doubled, but we have to deal with that,” said Kose. “It is Allah’s command.”
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