Ukraine’s ammunition stockpiles become crucial as artillery rampages

Stockpiles of ammunition are becoming increasingly important in the war in Ukraine, as artillery units burn through tens of thousands of shells a day, testing both sides’ ability to replenish dwindling reserves.

Experts say the Russian and Ukrainian armies have entered a war of attrition where access to ammunition – from rifle bullets to howitzer shells to ballistic missiles – is as important as manpower and weapon systems, and where avoidance is imperative that this runs out of ammo before the enemy does.

“The issue of supplies and supplies is the big issue right now,” said a senior European officer who wished to remain anonymous.

“The extremely high consumption of ammunition of all calibers is the hallmark of a high-intensity conflict,” the official told the AFP news agency.

According to RUSI, a British defense studies organization, Russia currently fires around 20,000 152mm shells used in Soviet-era howitzers and Ukraine 6,000 per day.

Domestically, while Russia can count on several ammunition production plants on its territory and the supply lines are stable, Ukraine only has its existing stocks and supplies from Western factories.

With the conflict centered on eastern Ukraine, “Russia’s supply routes are shorter than those of Ukrainians whose stocks are in the west of the country or even outside of the country,” the Europe officer said.

Another advantage for the invading army is that Russian ammunition is produced for Russian-made weapons, while Ukraine has to juggle a hodgepodge of weapons ranging from old Soviet equipment to the most modern Western equipment, all requiring different types of ammunition.

“The delivery of modern heavy weapons is more of a complication than a help for Ukraine,” said Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute for Political and Military Analysis.

RUSI suggested that “Ukraine’s partners should streamline the support they provide to a small number of platforms.”

Ukraine’s goal of reclaiming lost territory “cannot be achieved by piecemeal delivery of a large number of different equipment fleets, each with its own training, maintenance and logistics needs,” it said.

A big unknown is each side’s ability to produce ammunition at the required rate and quantity, about which AFP could not obtain precise data.

Moscow appears to be using its guided munitions, ballistic missiles and supersonic missiles with great caution, according to some analysts, although it has not run out of these types of weapons, as some predicted a few weeks ago.

The capacity of the Russian defense industry to produce artillery shells needed to replenish stockpiles is “significant,” RUSI said.

On the side of Ukraine’s allies, the United States could help Kiev’s army increase its daily artillery firing capacity to 10,000 shells a day, but only if it ramps up production back home in America, and even then only for a few months, it said Philippe Gros, a former French military intelligence officer and now with the FRS Strategy Research Institute.

Unlike Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has fully mobilized arms factories, Western countries are not officially warring parties in Ukraine and cannot put their economies on a war footing necessary for mass-production of weapons.

In the West, “stocks are running out and factories are not producing large volumes,” said Vassily Kashin of Moscow’s HSE University.

“It would be a mistake to think that NATO has unlimited reserves to help Ukraine, even considering the United States,” he said. “Russia’s war industry is bigger than Europe’s.”

While Ukraine’s Eastern European allies are rapidly running out of the leftover Soviet-era weapons they sent to Ukraine, Western economies are groaning under the effects of the war.

The French Defense Ministry said this week that the delivery of 18 Caesar-type 155mm guns amputated its entire inventory of Caesars by a quarter. According to the manufacturer Nexter, the production time for each of the cannons is 18 months.

NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana acknowledged this week that there are “active concerns” about how long the flow of arms and ammunition can be sustained.

But “there are efforts to increase the capacity and creativity of manufacturers,” he told AFP in an interview.

At the same time, according to Khramchikhin, Russian factories “have been in operation day and night since the fighting began”.

Meanwhile, attacking and destroying enemy holdings can be a worthwhile use of firepower in the absence of major production, and both Moscow and Kyiv regularly claim such hits.

Janes, a British defense intelligence agency, said Ukraine was capable of destroying such high-value targets.

“That’s probably going to make it harder and harder for the Russians over the next few weeks,” Janes told AFP.