Israel heading for early elections, Lapid poised to become prime minister

Israel’s parliament is expected to dissolve on Wednesday, ending Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s year-long term and triggering a fifth election in less than four years that could see ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regain power.

Barring an 11-hour shock agreement to bail out the coalition or form a new government within the existing parliament, Bennett’s eight-party alliance is due to end at midnight and install Foreign Secretary Yair Lapid as prime minister.

The former TV presenter is expected to lead an interim government ahead of elections due in late October or early November.

Bennett’s motley alliance, formed in 2021, provided a respite from an unprecedented era of political deadlock, ended Netanyahu’s record 12 consecutive years in power and passed Israel’s first national budget since 2018.

Netanyahu – a divisive hawk who has allied himself with far-right nationalists and Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties – has promised victory in new elections but may again struggle to garner a parliamentary majority, multiple polls have shown.

He is currently on trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

The anti-Netanyahu camp is likely to be led by Lapid, a centrist former TV star. When he entered politics a decade ago, dismissed as a lightweight, he surprised many with his political skills.

When he and Bennett announced last week that their coalition was unsustainable, Lapid attempted to portray Netanyahu’s possible return to office as a national threat.

“What we need to do today is return to the concept of Israeli unity. Not allowing dark forces to tear us apart from within,” Lapid said.

While parliamentary collapse seemed almost certain, the volatile political climate in Israel left the possibility of last-minute surprises.

Groups across the political spectrum fear they will lose seats in new polls or exit parliament altogether by falling below the minimum threshold for support, which is 3.25 percent of all votes cast.

According to Israeli reports, however, ways of avoiding another election were becoming increasingly remote.

That means Lapid is expected to take office at midnight after Parliament finally approves a dissolution bill under the power-sharing deal he agreed with Bennett last June.

Bennett, a religious nationalist, has led a coalition of right-wing, centrist, dovish and Islamist members of the Raam faction, which made history by becoming the first Arab party in the Jewish state’s 74-year history to back an Israeli government.

The alliance, united in its desire to oust Netanyahu and break a pernicious cycle of inconclusive elections, was threatened by its ideological divisions from the start.

But Bennett said the last straw was the failure to renew a measure ensuring the some 475,000 Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank live under Israeli law.

Some Arab lawmakers in the coalition refused to back a law they said was a de facto endorsement of a 55-year occupation that forced West Bank Palestinians to live under Israeli rule.

For Bennett, a staunch supporter of settlements, letting the so-called West Bank Act expire was unbearable. The dissolution of Parliament before the end of June 30 extends the measure temporarily.

“We fought like lions until the very last moment, until it just became impossible,” Bennett told the Israeli broadcaster 12 days after announcing the demise of his coalition.

Bennett is expected to remain deputy prime minister and be responsible for Iran policy while world powers take steps to revive stalled talks over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Israel refuses to restore the 2015 deal that granted Iran sanctions lifting in exchange for controls on its nuclear program.

Lapid will retain his title of foreign minister while serving as Israel’s 14th prime minister. He will soon find himself under a microscope as US President Joe Biden is due to be in Jerusalem in two weeks.