Are the signs pointing to an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal?

The United States has hinted that ahead of President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East, more Arab nations could take steps to improve ties with Israel.

All eyes are on Saudi Arabia, which Biden will visit in mid-July after he once vowed to treat the kingdom as a “pariah” state over the 2018 assassination and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

However, despite recent signs of US-Saudi rapprochement, analysts think it is unlikely that Riyadh will agree to diplomatic ties with Israel – not during Biden’s visit or while King Salman, 86, is still in power.

The king’s official policy is that there should be no peace with Israel until it withdraws from the occupied territories and accepts Palestinian statehood.

Biden’s visit will likely focus on convincing the world’s largest crude oil exporter to increase its oil production.

Here are some questions and answers on the possibility of a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel:

Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Israel is a “potential ally with many interests that we can pursue together,” state media reported in March, attributing the statement to an interview with The Atlantic.

Additionally, the kingdom never showed any resistance when its regional ally, the United Arab Emirates, established diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020, followed by Bahrain and Morocco under the US-brokered Abraham Accords.

In January 2021, Sudan’s interim government also agreed, but the northeast African country has yet to finalize the deal.

Saudi Arabia at the time also allowed direct flights from the Emirates to Israel to travel through its airspace, another implicit sign of approval.

Biden, who will also visit Israel, is to travel directly from the Jewish state to Saudi Arabia and become the first US president to fly from there to an Arab nation that does not recognize Israel.

In 2017, his predecessor Donald Trump did the opposite.

In recent months, Saudis have taken to social media – which is tightly controlled in the kingdom – to express support for normalization that would be a departure from the kingdom’s longstanding pan-Arab policy of isolating Israel until the conflict with the Palestinians is resolved.

Esawi Frej, Israel’s minister for regional cooperation, told Saudi newspaper Arab News in early June that Riyadh would be “central” to any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

News website Axios also reported this month that the United States was working on a “roadmap” for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, while the Wall Street Journal said the region’s two most influential nations were holding secret economic and security talks.

Yasmine Farouk of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said a relationship with Israel will help increase acceptance of Saudi Arabia.

“It will open doors for the crown prince, with Western people and parliaments accepting the kingdom and giving Saudi Arabia a bigger role,” she said.

“It will make a change, if only in terms of the image of Saudi Arabia … especially since (Prince Mohammed) sees it as a global power, not just Arab and Islamic.”

She said Israel would want normalization “because it will open the door not only to Saudi Arabia, but also to other (Arab and Muslim) countries that may already have secret talks with Israel but are not yet daring to normalize.”

The two countries have a common enemy in Iran, said a Riyadh-based diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“They look at it in terms of ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend,'” he said.

Two Saudi officials contacted by AFP declined to comment due to the “sensitivity” of the issue.

Dan Shapiro, who served as former US President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Israel, told AFP he expected Biden’s trip could bring “some important steps” toward Saudi diplomatic recognition of Israel, “probably not full normalization, but one.” Roadmap leading in this direction”.

But “not now,” Farouk said. “It is difficult as long as King Salman is alive.

“The word ‘normalisation’ should be used more cautiously… There may be some form of relationship, but as far as the Emirates and Bahrain I’m still a bit skeptical.”

Kristian Ulrichsen of Rice University’s Baker Institute said full diplomatic relations are only likely if Prince Mohammed becomes king.

“In the meantime, we will likely see a continuation of the current approach of normalizing the notion that Saudi Arabia and Israel are not enemies but share certain regional and geopolitical interests,” he told AFP.