#Ukraine #assassinate #Russia #doubtful
Russian authorities were quick to blame Ukraine for the car bomb that killed a Russian journalist last weekend, but intelligence experts say while Kyiv has the ability to orchestrate such an attack, the prospect is unlikely.
Daria Dugina, 29, who died outside Moscow on Saturday, was the daughter of ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, a vocal supporter of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine six months ago.
Kyiv has dismissed claims by Russian FSB security services that the killing was the work of a Ukrainian woman sent to track down and eliminate Dugina, who later fled to Estonia.
“Could we get 400 grams [just under a pound] from TNT to Russia? Theoretically yes. Could we plant a bomb? Yes,” a senior member of Ukraine’s intelligence service told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“But the big problem is, what good would it do? Nobody in Ukraine really knows anything about Dugin. Who would have anything against their daughter? Killing her makes no sense,” the source said.
Since Russia’s capture of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Ukraine has effectively been waging a secret war against Russia, expanding spy networks in preparation for future tensions.
“I think that since March there are Ukrainian logistical and operational networks in Russia… There are Ukrainians on the other side of the border,” said Gerald Arboit, an international intelligence expert at the CNAM research institute in Paris.
However: “For this type of attack you would need reconnaissance to follow it and then call in a team to execute it – you would need two or three people to booby trap a car – one person alone couldn’t do it.” do everything,” he said.
He did not dismiss Ukraine’s involvement, possibly with domestic Russian opposition groups, noting that the FSB’s Russian security services had dismantled Ukrainian networks in recent years.
– counterproductive –
Getting Ukrainian agents into Russia would also require dodging the Russian secret services, which after six months of war are believed to be on high alert.
“The assassination of Dugina took place in Moscow, which would be an incredibly difficult target for Ukrainian services to penetrate,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center in New York.
“But at the same time, I think it might be possible… Elite Ukrainian special forces or intelligence agencies are probably able to pull off the attack,” he said.
Experts also noted that the assassination of Dugina would most likely serve Putin’s interests and stoke anger, which could bolster support for a broader mobilization to rally more soldiers for a war that has largely stalled in southern and eastern Ukraine .
“I do not rule out that Dugina was killed by the Russians to intensify the war in Ukraine, possibly with non-conventional weapons,” such as thermobaric bombs, said a French intelligence source contacted by AFP.
Targeted assassination attempts on high-profile Russian targets, especially a young woman, would also be counterproductive for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who relies heavily on the sympathy and military aid of Western allies.
“I see no reason for such an operation for the Ukrainians, which would be very complex to conduct,” said Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy.
“And I can’t imagine the Americans or the British allowing that,” he added. “It appears to be an FSB ploy to undermine Kyiv, given that Dugin has no real influence over the Kremlin.”
Clarke agreed that if Ukraine were to assassinate a high-profile Russian, Dugina would not be her choice.
“I still suspect this was done by another entity, including the possibility that this was an inside job,” he said.
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