Europe in suspense because of the return of Russian gas to Germany

Europe is anxiously awaiting the return of Russian gas supplies on Thursday following the completion of planned work on a key pipeline, as heavily dependent Germany accuses the Kremlin of using energy as a ‘weapon’.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is due to reopen at 0400 GMT after 10 days of annual repairs, but Germany fears Russia will seize the opportunity to keep taps all or nearly closed, plunging the continent into an energy crisis.

The showdown comes amid the worst tensions between Russia and the West in several years over the invasion of Ukraine.

“Moscow does not shy away from weaponizing grain and energy supplies,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters this week, citing allegations that Moscow also deliberately blocked food exports from Ukraine.

“We must be determined to protect ourselves.”

However, continued German dependence on Russian gas combined with clearly negative signals from Moscow appeared to be increasing the pressure on Europe’s leading economy.

The IMF warned on Wednesday that a supply freeze could cut 2022 GDP by 1.5 percent.

Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom has in recent weeks throttled inflows to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea to around 40 percent of capacity, blaming the lack of a Siemens gas turbine, which was repaired in Canada.

The repaired turbine is reportedly on its way to Russia and is expected to arrive on Sunday at the earliest.

Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted this week that Gazprom will meet all of its delivery commitments.

“Gazprom has fully fulfilled, is fulfilling and will fulfill its commitments,” Putin told reporters in Tehran after holding talks with leaders of Iran and Turkey.

However, he warned that power flows could drop to 20 percent of capacity from next week as another gas turbine is due to be sent for maintenance later this month.

Since Putin sent troops into Ukraine on February 24 and the West responded with sanctions against Moscow, Russia has started cutting gas supplies to prevent EU countries from replenishing reserves.

Gazprom has already blamed “force majeure” for cuts in gas supplies to Europe, two major German customers said this week, fueling fears of further disruptions.

Force majeure is a legal measure that allows companies to release themselves from contractual obligations in the face of circumstances beyond their control.

The federal government has dismissed Gazprom’s turbine statement as an “apology”. However, Berlin concedes that it would be largely powerless to contest the force majeure claim and expect compensation from Russia.

According to official estimates, German gas reserves were around 65 percent on Wednesday. Experts say Germany would be critically suspended if supplies via Nord Stream 1 did not resume before cold weather returns.

The European Commission on Wednesday asked EU countries to cut their demand for natural gas by 15 percent in the coming winter months and give it special powers to enforce the demand cuts needed if Russia cuts the gas lifeline.

“Russia is blackmailing us,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, told reporters.

“Russia uses energy as a weapon and therefore Europe must be ready in any event, whether it is a partial major disruption to Russian gas or a complete disruption.”

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck, who has announced that he will shower less to save energy, stressed that industry – but also consumers – must do their part to reduce Russia’s power in the current standoff.

“One key lever is reducing gas consumption,” he said in a statement. “We have to work on that with all our might.”