According to the first major modeling study on the subject, released Friday, Covid vaccines prevented nearly 20 million deaths in the first year after they were introduced.
The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, is based on data from 185 countries and territories collected from December 8, 2020 to December 8, 2021.
It is the first attempt to estimate the number of deaths prevented directly and indirectly by Covid-19 vaccination.
It found that 19.8 million deaths were prevented out of a potential 31.4 million deaths that would have occurred had vaccines not been available.
It was a 63 percent reduction, the study found.
The study used official figures – or estimates where no official data was available – for deaths from Covid, as well as the total number of excess deaths from each country.
Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of people who have died from all causes and the number of deaths that are expected based on previous data.
These analyzes were compared to a hypothetical alternative scenario in which no vaccine was administered.
The model accounted for differences in vaccination rates between countries, as well as differences in vaccine effectiveness based on the types of vaccines known to be primarily used in each country.
China was not included in the study because of its large population and strict containment measures, which would have skewed the results, it said.
The study found that high- and middle-income countries were responsible for the largest number of averted deaths, 12.2 million out of 19.8 million, reflecting inequalities in access to vaccines around the world.
Nearly 600,000 additional deaths could have been prevented if the World Health Organization (WHO) goal of vaccinating 40 percent of each country’s population by the end of 2021 had been met, it concluded.
“Millions of lives have likely been saved by making vaccines available to people around the world,” said the study’s lead author, Oliver Watson of Imperial College London.
“We could have done more,” he said.
According to the WHO, Covid has officially killed more than 6.3 million people worldwide.
But the organization said last month the real number could be as high as 15 million when all direct and indirect causes are accounted for.
The numbers are extremely sensitive as they reflect how authorities are handling the crisis around the world.
The virus is on the rise again in some places, including Europe, where a resurgence in warm weather is being seen, partly attributed to the Omicron subvariants.
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