The backdoor negotiation by both neighboring countries signaled the resumption of the trade shortly. The optimistic view can’t be kept in the middle of both countries because both are uncertain for each other. The PM adviser and business tycoon hinted at the back-channel talks for resumption trade between two South Asian countries.
Some analysts thought that trade resumption could ease the political environment between governments. Then political governments’ engagement will solve territorial disputes through dialogue and diplomacy. In the past, both countries were involved in the geopolitical model of foreign policy instead of geoeconomics. Pakistan has shifted its approach from geopolitics to geoeconomics, focusing more on macroeconomics. For example, it was early last year when Pakistan’s top economic decision-making body, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, decided to import sugar and cotton from India to bridge domestic shortages for the consumers and the textile industry. But the cabinet meeting chaired by PM Imran Khan did not approve the proposal, and the Pak-India faced a downfall in their relationship after changing the New Delhi special status of Kashmir.
The ECC decision had come days after the exchange of letters between the two nations’ prime ministers, expressing a desire for peaceful and cooperative relations with each other. Prime Minister Imran Khan had stated that Islamabad “desired peaceful, cooperative relations with all neighbors, including India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had written that “India desires cordial relations with the people of Pakistan.”
Meanwhile, Indian trade minister Hardeep Singh Puri also stated in the parliament that his country desired normal relations, including on trade, with all countries, including Pakistan. “Pakistan unilaterally suspended bilateral trade with India in August 2019. It is for Pakistan to review its unilateral measures on trade,” he said.
In the Indo-Pak relationship, trade is the first sector that suffers due to the Kashmir issue and other geopolitical differences. After the Pulwama attack in Kashmir, the Indian government imposed a customs duty on its imports from Pakistan to protest over the Pulwama attack. India blamed Pakistan for its involvement in the Pulwama attack in Feb 2019. Pakistan suspended its all-trade corridors with New Delhi after 05 Aug 2019, when India canceled the special status of Kashmir in its constitution.
Government confrontation inflicted a huge loss within the business community, and trade suspension proved lethal for regional connectivity. After the trade cancellation, informal routes adopted by the business sector through UAE, Singapore, and Thailand increased the input capital. A 2018 World Bank study estimated that the trade potential between India and Pakistan was around $37bn. According to the report, both countries will not tap the potential benefit due to regional disputes, lacking infrastructure, and tariff imposition. Whole South Asia was affected by the poor decisions of both countries, mainly lack of cooperation was the primary reason.
The political and military heads should come forward to reduce the burden on the people helpful for both countries to reduce poverty. Trade should not be sacrificed at the hands of geopolitical disputes and lack of cooperation.
History had pages with countries that solved their disputes, normalizing their ties in trade. Countries that focus on trade cooperation will solve their armed conflicts through dialogue. Islamabad and India should shake hands in trade to materialize the potential benefiting both nations.
Source:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1677494/a-glimmer-of-hope-in-indo-pak-ties
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